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The commodity that doesn't need a narrative
45% of deals were $15M+. Copper is not in survival mode
| 🔶COPPER DEEP DIVE |
| Thursday, Feb 19, 2026 | 90-Day Commodity Intelligence |
| Last 90 Days in Copper |
| $245.6 MILLION |
| 22 Deals · 2 Bought Deals · Here's What You Missed |
| 22 Deals | $11.2M Avg Deal Size |
| 2 Bought Deals | +28% Avg vs Gold |
| While everyone was watching gold hit $5,600 and crash back down, copper quietly had one of its best 90-day windows in recent memory. 22 deals. $245.6M. Average deal size of $11.2M — that's 28% higher than gold's average in the same window. Here's what makes copper different right now: the big money isn't hiding. Two bought deals. A $44M non-brokered from Vizsla that institutional investors lined up for. A $40M brokered raise for a Chilean copper-gold project. When BMO leads a $35M bought deal for a BC copper mine, that's not speculation — that's conviction. The copper thesis hasn't changed: electrification, data centers, AI infrastructure, defense spending. Every EV needs 4x the copper of a gas car. Every data center needs miles of it. The demand story is structural, not cyclical. The market knows this. The question is whether the junior miners can get funded to find the next deposit. |
| 🏆 The Standout Deals |
| #1 Deal of the Window Vizsla Copper Corp. VCU:TSXV · Non-Brokered · December 2025 $44.2MCAD | |||
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| No broker. No tombstone. Just a strategic investor writing a serious check. When American Pacific leads a $44M non-brokered deal with zero warrants, they're not looking for a quick flip — they're building a position. This is a long-term bet on BC copper. |
| #2 Bought Deal Koryx Copper Bought Deal · January 2026 $40M |
| Clean structure. Institutional backing. Zero warrants. Two bought deals in 90 days for copper companies — the institutional market isn't just watching copper, it's funding it. |
| #3 Brokered Raise Hot Chili Brokered Private Placement · Feb 12, 2026 · Chile $40MCAD |
| Development capital for the Costa Fuego Copper-Gold Project in coastal Chile. This isn't exploration money — it's build-it money. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. When development-stage companies raise $40M for Chilean projects, the majors are paying attention. Costa Fuego is the kind of asset that ends up in a takeover. |
| #4 BMO-Led Bought Deal Copper Mountain Mining CMM:TSX · Bought Deal · January 2026 · British Columbia $35MCAD | |||
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| BMO + Mitsubishi Materials in the same deal. That's not retail money — that's the Japanese industrial complex making a strategic bet on Canadian copper supply. Mine expansion and equipment. This is a real mine getting bigger. |
| 💎 Worth Watching: Sendero Resources — $2M CAD Copper-gold exploration in Argentina. The investor list is the story: Peter Marrone (Yamana Gold founder), Eduardo Elsztain (prominent Argentine industrialist), and Pat DiCapo (PowerOne Capital Markets). Marrone built Yamana into a multi-billion dollar gold company. When he writes checks for exploration plays, people notice. |
| 📊 The Patterns |
| 1. December Was the Real Story $108.9M raised in December alone. Average deal: $27.2M. The Vizsla ($44M) and Getty Copper ($15M) raises anchored a massive month. January cooled to $87.6M across 11 deals. February is tracking back up with Hot Chili's $40M already in. Copper deal flow is lumpy. The big institutional raises happen in clusters, then the small-cap survival rounds fill in the gaps. |
| 2. The Bought Deal Signal 2 bought deals in 90 days, both $35M+. Zero warrants on both. That's institutional money saying: "We don't need sweeteners. We want the stock." When institutions buy copper without warrants, they're not hedging. They're making a directional bet. |
| 3. BC and Chile Dominate The two biggest themes in copper right now: British Columbia — Copper Mountain (mine expansion), Vizsla (exploration), Brixton Metals (Thorn project) Chile — Hot Chili (Costa Fuego development) Tier-1 jurisdictions are getting the capital. If your copper project is in a risky jurisdiction, you're raising sub-$5M non-brokered. |
| 4. Strategic Investors Are Moving Early American Pacific → Vizsla Copper ($44M) Mitsubishi Materials → Copper Mountain ($35M) Peter Marrone → Sendero Resources ($2M) The smart money isn't waiting for copper to hit $7/lb. They're buying the deposits now. |
| 📈 By the Numbers |
| Month | Deals | Total | Avg |
| Dec 2025 | 4 | $108.9M | $27.2M |
| Jan 2026 | 11 | $87.6M | $8.0M |
| Feb 2026 | 5 | $49.1M | $9.8M |
| February is tracking back up.Hot Chili's $40M already in — and the month isn't over. |
| Deal Size | Deals | % of Count |
| $0 – $1M | 5 | 23% |
| $1M – $5M | 5 | 23% |
| $5M – $15M | 2 | 9% |
| $15M – $50M | 10 | 45% |
| 45% of copper deals were $15M+.Compare that to gold, where 38% of deals were under $1M. Copper is not in survival mode. |
| 🎯 What It Means |
| IF YOU'RE AN INVESTOR: ✅ Follow the bought deals — Koryx and Copper Mountain are where conviction is ✅ Watch BC and Chile — tier-1 jurisdictions are getting the capital ✅ Strategic investors are your signal — American Pacific, Mitsubishi, Marrone ⚠️ Small-cap copper is struggling — 23% of deals under $1M, survival mode |
| IF YOU'RE A COMPANY: ✅ Copper thesis is working — $245M in 90 days proves demand ⚠️ Bifurcation is real — quality assets get $35-44M, everyone else gets $500K ✅ BC and Chile are fundable — tier-1 jurisdiction premium is real 💡 Find a strategic investor — American Pacific's $44M non-brokered beats any brokered deal |
| IF YOU'RE A BROKER: 💡 Bought deals are alive — 2 in 90 days, both $35M+ 💡 Chile is a story — Hot Chili's $40M for Costa Fuego, watch for more 💡 BC copper consolidation coming — multiple projects, strategic interest from Japanese industrials |
| 🔮 Forward Look |
| 1. Copper price — Trading near $5.90/lb, up 30% in the last year. If it breaks $6.50, deal flow accelerates fast. 2. Hot Chili progress — $40M raise for Costa Fuego. Watch for development milestones. 3. Vizsla follow-on — $44M non-brokered in December. Are they back for more? 4. BC consolidation — Multiple projects, strategic interest from Japanese industrials. CATALYSTS THAT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING: 🚀 Copper breaks $6.50/lb → institutional money floods junior miners 🚀 Major discovery in BC → district re-rates 🚀 EV demand data beats expectations → copper thesis accelerates 🚀 M&A in Chile → Costa Fuego-type assets get bid up |
| 📌 The Bottom Line Copper is the commodity that doesn't need a narrative — it has a thesis. Electrification. AI infrastructure. Defense spending. Every one of those trends needs copper. The market knows it. The institutional money knows it. That's why you're seeing $40M+ bought deals and strategic investors writing clean checks with no warrants. The bifurcation is real: quality assets in tier-1 jurisdictions are getting funded at scale. Everything else is scrambling for sub-$1M survival rounds. For investors: Follow the bought deals and the strategic investors. American Pacific, Mitsubishi, Marrone — they're not speculating. They're positioning. For companies: The copper thesis is your friend. But you need a real asset in a real jurisdiction. If you have that, the capital is there. |
| Next Thursday:⚛️ Uranium Deep Dive 6 deals · $117M · The nuclear renaissance is very much alive |
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| 🔶COPPER DEEP DIVE Part of the Funding Secured newsletter family. 📧 [email protected] · 🌐 fundingsecured.xyz See you next Thursday. Try to keep up. |
| Data sourced from public press releases. 22 copper deals analyzed (Nov 20, 2025 – Feb 18, 2026). |