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- 🥇 Gold Deep Dive: $433M in 90 days.
🥇 Gold Deep Dive: $433M in 90 days.
90-day pattern analysis
| 🥇GOLD DEEP DIVE |
| Thursday, Feb 13, 2026 | 90-Day Commodity Intelligence |
| Last 90 Days in Gold $433 MILLION 47 Deals · 7 Bought Deals · Here's What You Missed |
| 47 Deals | $9.2M Avg Size |
| 7 Bought Deals | -45% Avg Size vs Dec |
| Gold just had one of the wildest months in decades. A run past $5,600/oz in late January, then a $1,000 single-day crash on Feb 2. Meanwhile, gold juniors quietly raised $433 million in 90 days. But here's what the headlines won't tell you: the average deal size collapsed 45%. January saw 26 deals (up 136% from December). The average raise dropped from $14M to $7.8M. That's not institutional conviction — that's survival capital for most. 91% of deals were structured as non-brokered. Quick note: non-brokered doesn't mean brokers aren't involved. Individuals at brokerage firms regularly lead and participate in non-brokered deals — the firm just doesn't put its name on the tombstone. It's a structuring choice, not a signal that brokers have disappeared. The real story? 7 bought deals in 90 days. That's where the institutional conviction is sitting. |
| 🏆 The Bought Deals — Where the Conviction Is |
| #1 Bought Deal International Tower Hill Mines ITH:TSX · Bought Deal · Alaska $115MUSD BMO Capital Markets led this raise for the Livengood Gold Project. When BMO puts nine figures behind a gold play — that's a signal. | |||
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| #2 Bought Deal Versamet Royalties· Closed Feb 9 C$142M Biggest CAD bought deal in the window. Institutional capital flowing into royalty/streaming. |
| #3 Bought Deal Osisko Development· Announced Jan 26, Completed Feb 3 US$125M Nine-figure raise. Development-stage gold with real assets getting funded at scale. |
| MORE BOUGHT DEALS: Western Copper and Gold — C$50M (Feb 11) Kingfisher Metals — C$20M (Feb 5) Aldebaran Resources — Jan 27 upsize + Feb 5 closing Gladiator Metals — bought-deal financing |
| 📊 7 Bought Deals in 90 Days The institutional market isn't dead — it's extremely selective. Quality asset vs. everything else. |
| 📋 Notable Non-Brokered Deals |
| Freegold VenturesFVL:TSX · Alaska $130MCAD (3 tranches) Golden Summit Project. Cormark led the final $50M tranche at $0.85 with half-warrant @ $1.10. Two Alaska projects = $245M combined. 57% of ALL gold capital. |
| San Lorenzo GoldSLG:TSXV · Mexico $6MCAD (Upsized from $5M) Rare upsize in a down market. Peter Marrone (Yamana Gold founder) participated. |
| 📊 The Patterns |
| 1. The $1M Ceiling Is Real 38% of deals were under $1M. 18 deals under $1M, 14 between $1-5M, only 5 above $25M. The small-cap gold market is in triage mode. |
| 2. Non-Brokered Dominates — Context Matters 91% structured as non-brokered. But brokers are still in the mix — non-brokered means the firm doesn't put its name on the deal. Individuals at firms still source and participate. The real signal? 7 bought deals, all $20M+, all institutional. |
| 3. Warrant Terms Getting Sweeter 53% of deals included warrants (up from ~40% in Q3). Full warrant: 21%. Half warrant: 30%. Strike premiums down to 40-50%. Buyer's market. |
| 4. Flow-Through Is Dead (For Now) Only 13% flow-through (6 of 47). Tax year-end rush is over. Don't expect FT premium until Q4 2026. |
| 📈 Monthly Trend |
| Month | Deals | Avg |
| Nov 2025 | 4 | $16.4M |
| Dec 2025 | 11 | $14.1M |
| Jan 2026 | 26 | $7.8M |
| Feb 2026 | 6 | $1.8M |
| More deals, smaller checks.Volume up 136%. Avg size down 45%. |
| 🎯 What It Means |
| INVESTORS: ✅ Buyer's market — negotiate warrant terms hard ✅ Follow the bought deals — that's where conviction is ✅ Watch Alaska — $245M in 90 days ⚠️ Avoid desperation deals — full warrants + long expiry = red flag |
| COMPANIES: ⚠️ Lower expectations — $7.8M avg, down 45% ⚠️ Sweeten the terms — warrants are table stakes ✅ Non-brokered can work — but you need relationships at the firms ✅ Have a real asset — 7 bought deals prove capital is there for quality |
| BROKERS: 💡 Bought deals are alive — 7 in 90 days, all $20M+ 💡 Alaska is hot — two $100M+ deals 💡 Wait for Q4 — flow-through returns |
| 🔮 Forward Look |
| 1. Gold price volatility — After the Feb 2 crash and recovery, where it settles matters for deal flow. 2. Alaska momentum — Will ITH and Freegold attract more capital? 3. February slowdown — Only 6 deals so far. Seasonal or structural? 4. Bought deal pipeline — 7 in 90 days. Watch for more. CATALYSTS: 🚀 Gold stabilizes and resumes uptrend → institutional money floods back 🚀 Major discovery in Alaska → district re-rates 🚀 Fed rate cuts → risk-on for junior miners |
| 📌 The Bottom Line The gold financing market is bifurcating. At the top: Bought deals raising $20M-$142M with institutional backing. At the bottom: Everyone else scrambling for sub-$1M survival rounds. 7 bought deals in 90 days prove the capital is there — but only for quality. For investors: Follow the bought deals. For companies: Have a real asset or adjust expectations. |
| NEXT THURSDAY:🔶 Copper & Base Metals Deep Dive 20 deals · $269M · A VERY different story |
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| 🥇GOLD DEEP DIVE Part of the Funding Secured newsletter family. 📧 [email protected] · 🌐 fundingsecured.xyz See you next Thursday. Try to keep up. |
| Data sourced from public press releases. 47 gold deals analyzed (Nov 12, 2025 - Feb 10, 2026). |